Scenario-specific observations for regional snow avalanche warnings

Avalanche forecasters are increasingly formalizing a risk-based approach to analyze different avalanche problems or scenarios. Since public danger warnings in Canada apply to large regions, users must down-scale the danger using local field observations. We conducted a field study in the mountains of western Canada on over 175 days. On each field day, an experienced team rated the local avalanche danger, identified the avalanche scenario of most concern locally, and observed a standard set of over 20 field observations. New snowfall over a two-day period correlated with local danger in all scenarios, but otherwise a unique set of observations correlated best with local danger for each scenario. The results provide an evidence-based selection of specific local observations for potential use in regional snow avalanche warnings. The identified observations may help recreationists make better informed decisions.